Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.886708 1.990875 2.099838 2.222691 2.357805 2.502391 2.669503
2025-07-13 1.750440 1.897570 2.058601 2.249314 2.470865 2.722467 3.033251
2025-07-20 1.670050 1.844595 2.041819 2.283912 2.576999 2.925719 3.380612
2025-07-27 1.611315 1.806486 2.032770 2.318892 2.677672 3.122405 3.732195
2025-08-03 1.539840 1.746011 1.989811 2.305301 2.712172 3.233771 3.979882
2025-08-10 1.478673 1.692847 1.950418 2.290507 2.740150 3.334431 4.218803
2025-08-17 1.421854 1.641093 1.908574 2.267944 2.753577 3.413224 4.431320
2025-08-24 1.370913 1.593615 1.868786 2.244267 2.761812 3.482765 4.634544
2025-08-31 1.335987 1.564271 1.850002 2.246176 2.803659 3.601394 4.924809
2025-09-07 1.308797 1.543217 1.840349 2.258889 2.860183 3.744557 5.270967
2025-09-14 1.266870 1.501240 1.800994 2.228061 2.850967 3.785994 5.449218
2025-09-21 1.227058 1.460480 1.761413 2.194551 2.835010 3.814500 5.606615
2025-09-28 1.184394 1.415100 1.714606 2.149557 2.800530 3.812892 5.713443
2025-10-05 1.169850 1.406404 1.716994 2.174696 2.873614 3.991606 6.185856
2025-10-12 1.158982 1.401996 1.724714 2.207420 2.959933 4.199869 6.753864
2025-10-19 1.148894 1.398098 1.732689 2.240489 3.048525 4.420480 7.393031
2025-10-26 1.124516 1.373811 1.710966 2.227643 3.061268 4.506133 7.750809
2025-11-02 1.101165 1.350195 1.689276 2.213656 3.070875 4.586313 8.111577
2025-11-09 1.076791 1.324447 1.663630 2.192319 3.066544 4.639350 8.416861
2025-11-16 1.053323 1.299322 1.638053 2.169920 3.058880 4.684933 8.712972
2025-11-23 1.038210 1.285453 1.628277 2.171727 3.092926 4.815541 9.266741
2025-11-30 1.026788 1.276414 1.625157 2.183754 3.145396 4.988509 9.988532
2025-12-07 1.004192 1.250966 1.597100 2.154585 3.122316 5.002107 10.241987